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Experts reveal how a major food crisis might happen in the UK, and what we can do to stop it

Posted on 4 February 2026

A new report has set out how the UK might respond to major disruptions to food supplies triggered by events such as war, extreme weather, or cyber-attacks, and what can be done now to prevent such disruptions from escalating into a crisis.

Researchers say it is critical to improving national food resilience.

39 food system experts from the University of York, Anglia Ruskin University and other institutions have mapped how shocks to the food system, such as sudden price hikes or food shortages, could intensify pressure on already vulnerable parts of the system, ultimately increasing strain, instability, and the risk of social unrest.

Recent events have served as a wake-up call. From cyber-attacks disrupting major retailers like M&S and Co-op, to the global price shocks caused by the war in Ukraine, the dependence of the UK food system on fragile, just-in-time networks has been laid bare.

Published in the journal Sustainability, the study argues that long-standing structural issues are leaving the UK dangerously exposed. Addressing these weaknesses, the researchers say, is critical to improving national food resilience.

International conflict

The report outlines how a major international conflict could lead to trade disruptions, surging energy prices, disrupted agricultural and food supply chains, and escalating food costs. Rising prices would disproportionately affect low-income households, restricting access to nutritious food and heightening food insecurity.

This, in turn, could fuel social tensions and lead to increases in food fraud and sales on the black market, which could result in more food-related illnesses. In a worst-case scenario, public trust in government and business could erode to the point of unrest or riots.

To reduce these risks, the researchers recommend key interventions, including increasing UK energy security, diversifying food value chains, and promoting more varied and resilient diets.

Extreme weather

The report also explores how other triggers, such as cyber attacks or extreme weather events, could cause similar cascading crises, either independently or in combination.

Based on interviews with more than 30 food system experts from academia, government, and industry, the study identifies key systemic weaknesses, crisis triggers, and interventions that could prevent them. It also presents a detailed, interconnected map of the UK food system, building on principles of systems thinking, a new tool already being used by policymakers to guide more resilient decision-making.

Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, said: “The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security. While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.

"While there is a growing awareness of the potential risks, not enough coordinated work is being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected. Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.”

Working together

Dominic Watters, lived and living experience researcher, writer, and study contributor, said: “Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone; they come from a lack of dignity, voice, and care. This research highlights how the stigma and dehumanisation of food insecurity are already creating cracks in our society.

"If we want a genuinely resilient and ‘ready’ United Kingdom, we cannot build it on systems of shame. That is why this study speaks to the importance of co-designing responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.”

Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said: “The potential for events to trigger a food crisis is frequently underestimated. The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences.

"Policymakers must adopt a long term perspective to policy planning, and work across departments and wider food system stakeholders to ensure a whole-systems approach to addressing the problems.”

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