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Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand

Posted on 12 April 2022

CHE's latest Research Paper 186 written by Maria Ana Matias, Rita Santos, Panos Kasteridis, Katja Grasic, Anne Mason, Nigel Rice

CHE Research Paper 186 cover photo 300

To plan services and staff for the National Health Service (NHS), the government needs to know how much demand for services will rise and how much to spend on the NHS in future. These future estimates are known as projections: they indicate how much demand might rise or how much might be spent if certain assumptions hold true.

Published estimates of the amount of future NHS spend vary widely. This is partly because of uncertainty about how much demand for health care will rise in future, but also reflects differences in the statistical approaches used and the assumptions made.

Our aim was to describe and critically assess alternative statistical methods for projecting future healthcare demand and expenditure.

Full Report: CHE Research Paper 186 (PDF , 2,194kb)

Other papers in the CHE Research paper series can be found at: CHE Research Papers