Global Health Seminar - COVID-19 and teen birth rates: evidence from Ecuador

Event details

Authors: Omar Galárraga, Virat Agrawal, and Christopher M. Whaley
DRAFT Working Paper
This version: 19 May 2025
JEL: I1, I12, I18 

Abstract:

We estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath on teen conceptions by analyzing teen birth rates using official registry microdata for Ecuador. We use all individual birth records during 2013-2022 from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). We then compute excess/shortage events across time at the national and canton levels, and by age-groups and race/ethnicity using difference-in-differences and event-study specifications. During 2020, there were 38,472 fewer births than expected based on historical trends and seasonality; implying an overall 14% baby bust in 2020. It is not clear, a priori, if teen birth rates fell at a greater or smaller proportion than rates for other age groups (i.e., teens vs. women in their early 20s, or late 20s, or early 30s), and if Indigenous women were disproportionately affected. Although economic theory suggests that limited employment opportunities and low wages for young people would decrease teen pregnancy rates, after an initial teen baby bust, the birth rate in highly-indigenous cantons was 6.5 percentage points higher than in non-highly-indigenous cantons in the post-COVID-19 years. This corresponds to a 15% higher teen birth rate in highly-indigenous cantons, despite more limited education and economic outlook for teen Indigenous women. The results are robust to a number of alternative model specifications, age-group control comparisons, and pre-trend number of leads.

If you are not a member of University of York staff and are interested in attending a seminar, please contact akseer.hussain@york.ac.uk so that you can be added to the mailing list.

Professor Omar Galárraga

Director of the Center for Global Public Health (CGPH) at Brown University’s School of Public Health

Web page