CHE Seminar - The Causal Impact of Health on Employment and Earnings: A Partial Identification Approach with Imperfect Instruments
Event details
Abstract:
In observational studies, estimates of the impact of health on labour market outcomes often risk bias due to omitted variables, measurement errors, and reverse causality. Using data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study, this paper applies a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound the causal effects of health on employment and monthly labour earnings. The results show that having one health condition reduces the probability of employment by 0 to 7 percentage points, while having two or three conditions lowers it by 2 to 8 percentage points. In terms of earnings, one condition reduces monthly earnings by £0 to £1,350, two conditions result in £170 to £1,380 less, and three conditions reduce earnings by £200 to £1,380. Using biomarkers as an alternative, less error-prone, measure of health, we find that an abnormal blood test reduces the probability of employment by 0 to 4 percentage points and monthly earnings by £0 to £1,510, while two abnormal tests reduce the probability of employment by 2 to 6 percentage points and earnings by £1,590 to £2,570. We also provide disease-specific results for several non-communicable conditions.
If you are not a member of University of York staff and are interested in attending a seminar, please contact sumit.mazumdar@york.ac.uk or joe.spearing@york.ac.uk so that we can ensure we have sufficient space. Please also use these contacts if you wish to be added to the mailing list.
About the speaker
Luke Munford
Luke Munford is a Senior Lecturer in Health Economics at the University of Manchester. He is an applied economist whose work focuses on health inequalities, labour markets, and the wider social determinants of health. From 1 April 2026, he will become Co‑Director of the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC‑GM). He will also lead the Work, Health and Productivity research theme. In addition, he co‑leads the ‘Health in a Wider Context’ theme within the Centre for Primary Care and Health Services Research (CPCHSR) at the University of Manchester, and he is an Academic Co‑Director of Health Equity North (HEN)—a pan‑Northern virtual institute dedicated to tackling place‑based health inequalities. Luke has been at the University of Manchester since 2013, progressing through research and lectureship roles.
Venue details
Wheelchair accessible
Contact
For more information on these seminars, contact Sumit Mazumdar or Joe Spearing.