Global Health seminar - When does modelling systems complexity add value in health economic evaluation? Reflections from three applications

Event details

Abstract:

Through my work in systems simulation, economic evaluation, and global health, I have increasingly been asked to address policy questions where feedback mechanisms, behavioural responses, and population heterogeneity seem relevant to evaluation. There is likely some selection bias here given my area of work. But it raises a practical question worth examining: when does incorporating such complexity into models actually matter for conclusions, and when might simpler methods suffice?
 
This seminar explores this question through three applied cases I have worked on with colleagues. In Thailand, a system dynamics model examined dialysis policy options in a system exhibiting non-linear feedbacks. In Ghana, an agent-based model explores how affordability and availability barriers interact with heterogeneous patients making care-seeking decisions under different constraints. In Scottish care homes during COVID-19, a hybrid agent-based system dynamics model examined how network structure created by agency staff movement affected outbreak dynamics across heterogeneous facilities and explored potential interventions.
 
Drawing across these cases, I discuss conditions under which modelling systems’ complexity is likely to add value and reflect on approaches to building confidence in these models. The seminar concludes with opportunities for collaboration in this space at CHE.

If you are not a member of University of York staff and are interested in attending a seminar, please contact akseer.hussain@york.ac.uk so that you can be added to the mailing list.