Posted on 26 January 2018
Following on from our Spring and Autumn 2017 events we are continuing with our 'research lecture' series by academic colleagues in the Economics Department, where the aim is to illustrate how the economics we teach is used in our own research, and the relevance of this research to the wider economy and society. We want to show how the kind of economics and econometrics our students are familiar with can be used to approach interesting research questions and get useful results. In addition we want to support greater academic community with our students, and for our students to see why we are so excited about our research, and to share this with our students. This event is open to all our undergraduate and postgraduate students who are interested in finding out about the research we do here in the Economics Department and how our research impacts on the wider world around us.
Dr Matthias Morys: Can Greece stay in the euro without the troika? Lessons from 100 years of South-East European monetary history
We add a historical and regional dimension to the debate on the Greek debt crisis. Analysing Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia and Bulgaria from political independence to WW II, we find strong parallels to the present: repeated cycles of entry and exit from monetary unions, government debt build-up and default, and financial supervision by West European countries. Gold standard membership was more short-lived than in any other part of Europe. Granger causality tests and money growth accounting show that the prevailing pattern of fiscal dominance was only broken under international financial control, when strict conditionality scaled back the treasury’s influence; only then were central banks able to conduct a rule-bound monetary policy and stabilize exchange-rates. The long-run record of Greece suggests that the perennial economic and political objective of monetary union membership can only be maintained and secured if both monetary and fiscal policy remains firmly anchored in a European institutional framework.
Professor Gulcin Ozkan: Does macroprudential policy work?
The severity of the 2008-09 global financial crisis highlighted the importance of financial stability as a key goal of macroeconomic policy. Macroprudential instruments – targeted rules to reduce instability across the financial system - are now part of policy tool box in many countries. Using a specially developed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, Gulcin explores whether these policies are likely to be effective, particularly in financially open economies.