Dr Şule Şahin
Senior Lecturer

Profile

Biography

Şule Şahin is currently a Senior Lecturer in Actuarial Science at the University of York. Previously, she worked as a Lecturer in Actuarial Mathematics at the University of Liverpool (2017-2021). She also held an Associate Professor position at Department of Actuarial Sciences at Hacettepe University, Turkey between 2018 and 2020.

She received her PhD degree at Actuarial Mathematics from Heriot-Watt University in 2010, her MSc degree in Actuarial Science from Hacettepe University, her MSc degree in Sociology and undergraduate degree in statistics from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey.

Her research interests lie in the area of stochastic investment models for long-term applications, mortality modelling and compensation for loss of earnings. She visited Witwatersrand University, Johannesburg in 2012 and Columbia University, New York in 2019 based on different research projects funded by the Witwatersrand University, the Casualty Actuarial Society and Society of Actuaries. Besides attending several conferences over the years, she has published papers in leading actuarial, applied mathematics and statistics journals. She is one of the co-editors of the open access Springer Actuarial Series Book, “Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection” published in 2021.

Career

Subject Group

 Accounting and Finance

Research

Overview

Şule’s research interests lie in actuarial mathematics. More specifically, stochastic investment models (also known as economic scenario generators), mortality modelling, and actuarial compensations for loss of earnings and pensions. Her research is interdisciplinary which combines actuarial mathematics, statistics, economics and sociology.

Her recent research focuses on mortality modelling - transitory jumps with renewal process incorporating the history of catastrophic events such as pandemics, two-population models and longevity hedging as well as different aspects of economic scenario generators such as model uncertainty.

She also works on developing advanced actuarial compensation tables for injury and death applied to jurisdictions of different countries.

Publications

Selected publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Publications

Şahin, Ş. and Venter, G., 2023, The Actuary Takes the Stand: Compensation for Personal Injury, Variance (Journal of Casualty Actuarial Society), accepted, 1-42.

Venter, G. and Şahin, Ş., 2021, Semiparametric Regression for Dual Population Mortality, North American Actuarial Journal, 1-25.

Ozen, S. and Şahin, Ş., 2021, A Two-Population Mortality Model to Assess Longevity Basis Risk, Risks, 9: 44, 1-19.

Şahin, Ş. and Levitan, S., 2020, A Stochastic Investment Model for South African Use, South African Actuarial Journal, 20(1), 49-79.

Şahin, Ş., Boado-Penas, M. D. C., Constantinescu, C., Eisenberg, J., Henshaw, K., Hu, M. and Zhu, W., 2020, First Quarter Chronicle of COVID-19: An Attempt to Measure Governments’ Responses, Risks, 8(4), 1-26.

Ozen, S. and Şahin, Ş., 2020, Transitory mortality jump modeling with renewal process and its impact on pricing of catastrophic bonds, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 376, 1-15.

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2019, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Supplement to Part 4: A Model for Share Earnings, Dividends and Prices, Annals of Actuarial Science, 14(1), 138-149. 

Nevruz, E. and Şahin, Ş., 2018, A Comparison of the Extreme Value Theory and GARCH Models in terms of Risk Measures, Annals of Spanish Institute of Actuaries, 4(24), 149-170.

Şahin, Ş. and Karageyik, B. B., 2018, The Force of Ruin, Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 36(2), 563-575.

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2018, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Part 5: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model for Retail Prices and Wages, Annals of Actuarial Science, 13(1), 92-108.

Venter, G. and Şahin, Ş., 2018, Parsimonious Parameterization of Age-Period-Cohort Models by Bayesian Shrinkage, ASTIN Bulletin, 48(1), 89-110.

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2018, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Part 4: A Model for Share Earnings, Dividends and Prices, Annals of Actuarial Science, 12(1), 67-105.

Arik, A., Okur, Y.Y., Şahin, Ş. and Ugur, O., 2017, Pricing Pension Buy-outs under Stochastic Interest and Mortality Rates, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018:3, 173-190.

Karageyik, B. B. and Şahin, Ş., 2017, Determination of Optimal Retention Level Based on Different Measures, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 10(1), 1-21.

Karageyik, B. B. and Şahin, Ş., 2017, Optimal Lower Barrier on Modified Surplus Process, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 87:8, 1520-1540

Karageyik, B. B. and Şahin, Ş., 2017, Optimal Retention Level for Infinite Time Horizons under MADM, Risks, 5(1), 1-24. 

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2017, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Part 3C: Stochastic bridging for Share Yields and Dividends and Interest Rates, Annals of Actuarial Science, 11(1), 128-163. 

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2017, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Part 3B: Stochastic Bridging for Retail Prices and Wages, Annals of Actuarial Science, 11(1), 100-127.

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2017, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Part 3A: Stochastic Interpolation: Brownian and OU Bridges, Annals of Actuarial Science, 11(1), 74-99.

Şahin, Ş., Karabey, U., Karageyik, B.B., Nevruz, E. and Yıldırak, K., Actuarial Premium Calculation for Wheat Crop Insurance in Turkey, Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 22(2), 37-47.

Degirmenci, S. and Şahin, Ş., 2016, Optimal Hedge Ratios for Turkish Mortality, Journal of Financial Researches and Studies, 8(15), 309-323.

Karageyik, B. B. and Şahin, Ş., 2016, A Review on Optimal Reinsurance under Ruin Probability Constrain, Journal of Statisticians: Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, 9(1), 26-36.

Karabey, U., Şahin, Ş. and Arik, A., 2016, Pricing Turkish Longevity Risk, International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics, 37(2), 1-18.

Thomson, R.J., Şahin, Ş., Reddy, T. L., 2016, How a Single-Factor CAPM Works in a Multi-Currency World, ASTIN Bulletin, 46(1), 103-139.

Wilkie, A. D. and Şahin, Ş., 2016, Yet more on a stochastic economic model: part 2: initial conditions, select periods and neutralising parameters, Annals of Actuarial Science, 10(1), 1-51.

Degirmenci, S. and Şahin, Ş., 2015, Pricing Longevity Risks with Survivor Swaps: An Application to 1/2 Turkey, Economical Approach (Ekonomik Yaklasim), 26(95), 89-112.

Şahin, Ş. and Elveren. A. Y., 2014, A Minimum Pension Guarantee Application for the Individual Pension System in Turkey: A Gendered Approach, Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, 35(3), 242-270.

Şahin, Ş., Cairns, A., Kleinow, T. and Wilkie, A. D., 2014, A Yield-Macro Model for Actuarial Use in the United Kingdom, Annals of Actuarial Science, 8(2), 320-350.

Şahin, Ş., Cairns, A., Kleinow, T. and Wilkie, A. D., 2014, A Yield-Only Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Annals of Actuarial Science, 8(1), 99-130.

Wilkie, A. D., Şahin, Ş., Cairns, A. and Kleinow, T., 2011, Yet More on a Stochastic Economic Model: Part 1: Updating and Refitting, 1995 to 2009, Annals of Actuarial Science, 5(1), 53-99.

Şahin, Ş. and Elveren. A. Y., 2011, Assessing a Minimum Pension Guarantee for the Voluntary IPS in Turkey, International Social Security Review, 65(3), 39-61.

Şahin, Ş., Rittersberger-Tılıç, H. and Elveren. A. Y., The Individual Pension System in Turkey: A Gendered Perspective, Economical Approach (Ekonomik Yaklasim), 21(77), 115-142.

Books

Boado-Penas, M.D.C., Eisenberg, J. and Şahin, Ş. (Editors), 2021, Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection, Springer Actuarial Series, 1-298.

Şahin, Ş., Bulut-Karageyik, B., Nevruz, E. and Şimşek, G., 2021, Actuarial Expert Witnessing – Compensation Calculations for Loss of Income (in Turkish), 2nd Edition in 2022, Seckin Publishing, 1-320.

Şahin, Ş., Nevruz, E., Bulut-Karageyik, B., and Şimşek, G., 2020, Actuarial Expert Witnessing – Compensation Calculations for Wrongful Death (in Turkish), 2nd Edition in 2022, Seckin Publishing, 1-302.

Book Chapters and Editorials

Ozen, S. and Şahin, Ş., 2022, "The Impact of Collateralization on Longevity Swap Transactions" in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Science and Finance, MAF 2022 (eds. Corazza, M., Perna, C., Pizzi, C. and Sibillo, M.), Springer, 365-370.

Boado-Penas, M.C., Devolder, P.,Şahin, Ş. and Sunyer, C., 2022, "A Fixed Career Length Versus a Fixed Retirement age: An Analysis per Socio-Economic Groups" in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Science and Finance, MAF 2022 (eds. Corazza, M., Perna, C., Pizzi, C. and Sibillo, M.), Springer, 115-120.

Boado-Penas, M.D.C., Eisenberg, J. and Şahin, Ş., 2021, Editorial in Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection, Springer Actuarial Series

Boado-Penas, M.D.C., Eisenberg, J. and Şahin, Ş., 2021, "COVID-19: a Trigger for Innovations in Insurance" in Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection (eds. Boado-Penas, C.M., Eisenberg, J. and Şahin, Ş.), Springer Actuarial Series, 1-14.

Boado-Penas, M.D.C., Demarco, G., Eisenberg, J., Lundberg, K. and Şahin, Ş., 2021, "All-Hands-On-Deck! – How International Organisations Respond to the COVID-19 Pandemic" in Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection (eds. Boado-Penas, C.M., Eisenberg, J. and Şahin, Ş.), Springer Actuarial Series, 131-148.

Şahin, Ş., Nevruz, E. and Şimşek, G, 2021, Compensation for Wrongful Death Claims: neither a recovery for the economic loss nor the “value of a life” in Danse Macabre (in Turkish)(eds. Elif Başak Aksoy and Ali Metin Büyükkaya), Ege Publishing

Şahin, Ş. and Elveren, A.Y., 2012, "Gender Gaps in the Individual Pension System in Turkey", in Gender and Society in Turkey: The Impact of Neo-Liberal Policies, Political Islam and EU Accession (eds. Saniye Dedeoglu and Adem Yavuz Elveren), I.B. Tauris Publishers: London & New York

Teaching

Undergraduate

Şule is a Fellow of Higher Education Academy and she has an extensive teaching experience in undergraduate and graduate levels.

Modules

• Further Statistics for Actuarial Science
• Advanced Quantitative Methods

Other teaching

Some of the modules taught previously: 

• Theory of Interest
• Applied Probability
• Actuarial Models
• Statistical Methods in Insurance and Finance
• Life Insurance Mathematics
• Actuarial Programming