Profile

Career

2012 -		Fellow of the Royal Society
2004 -	Professor	Department of Biology, University of York
1999 - 2004	Professor	School of Biology, University of Leeds
1995 - 1999	Research Fellow	School of Biology, University of Leeds
1992 - 1995	Lecturer	School of Biological Sciences, University of Birmingham
1990 - 1992	Post-doc	CPB, Imperial College at Silwood Park, London
1988 - 1989	Post-doc	DSIR/University of Canterbury, New Zealand
1988	PhD	University of Texas at Austin, USA
1984	MSc	University College of North Wales, Bangor
1981	BA	Cambridge University

 

Research

Overview

Research in the group focuses on the ecological and evolutionary impacts of human activities on biological systems. We are particularly interested in the following topics. (A) The recent and potential future impact of climate and land use changes on the distributions of species, and on population- and species-level extinctions. This involves a combination of field work and modelling. (B) Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation on the extinction and survival of species in human-modified landscapes, dealing with the landscape-scale sustainability of populations and communities. (C) Will species be able to shift their distributions in response to climate change, given that they must cross heavily modified and fragmented landscapes to do so? (D) How do evolutionary (gene flow and selection) processes determine the dynamics and locations of species’ range boundaries. (E) Development of conservation strategies that will be appropriate and robust in the context of climate change.

Discoveries

We have documented northwards shifts in a wide range of groups of animals over recent decades, during a period of climate warming, and have recently identified that tropical insects have moved to higher elevations. We estimated that 15-37% of species may be committed to eventual extinction as a result of climate warming that is likely to have taken place (mid-range estimates) by 2050, and we have contributed to the development of climate-change adaptation policies for biodiversity. We have also collaborated in the development of conservation planning tools, resulting in the identification of priority areas in Britain and Madagascar.

Current projects

• Linking population and genetic changes during ranges shifts induced by climate change (Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet)
• The relative importance of microclimate and land use to biodiversity (Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet)
• Adaptation for future climate warming: the role of habitat creation in promoting species' range shifts (Funding body: NERC)
• The role of ecological and evolutionary processes in the range expansion of grasshoppers and crickets (Funding body: CEH/NERC)
• Climate change and the ecology of the British uplands: the responses of northern insects, and the implications for threatened bird species (Funding body: NERC/RSPB0
• The impact of climate change on habitat use: implications for predicting species' range changes. (Funding body: NERC/EHFI)
• Developing effective adaptation methods for conserving UK biodiversity in the face of future climate warming. (Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet)
• ClimBioHotspots: Climate change and areas with high species diversities at global scale. (Funding body: EC (Marie Curie))
• Phenological synchrony and species’ range shifts. (Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet)
• Changes to plant biodiversity in Britain. (Funding body: NERC/BSBI)

Research group(s)

Status	Name	Project
PhD Student	Corrado Topi	Biodiversity indicators of global climate change
PhD Student	Alexandra Bell	Changes to plant biodiversity in Britain
PhD Student	Matthew Carroll	Climate change and the ecology of the British uplands: the responses of northern insects, and the implications for threatened bird species
PhD Student	I-Ching Chen	Impacts of climate change on tropical biodiversity
PhD Student	Joe Chipperfield	Linking population and genetic changes during ranges shifts induced by climate change
PhD Student	Andrew Suggitt	Modelling thermal components of habitat availability at species’ range boundaries
PhD Student	Rachel Pateman	Quantifying relationships between habitat use and temperature at butterfly range boundaries
PhD Student	Alison Jukes	The establishment of non-native plant species in Britain
PhD Studen	Sarah Smith	The impact of climate change on European butterfly biodiversity, past and future
PhD Student	Pippa Gillingham	The relative importance of microclimate and land use to biodiversity
PhD Student	Björn Beckmann	The role of ecological and evolutionary processes in the range expansion of grasshoppers and crickets
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Kevin Walker (Botanical Society of the British Isles)	Changes to plant biodiversity in Britain.
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Irina Venevskaya	ClimBioHotspots: Climate change and areas with high species diversities at global scale.
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Barbara Anderson	Linking biodiversity and ecosystem services: processes, priorities and prospects
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Jon Bennie (based at the University of Exeter)	Metapopulation dynamics and climate change in a model system: the silver-spotted skipper
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Tom Oliver (based at Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)	The impact of climate change on habitat use: implications for predicting species' range changes.
Visiting Researcher	Dr Ralf Ohlemueller	Assessing biodiversity risk from climate change and other drivers of change
Visiting Researcher	Dr Atte Moilanen	Development of conservation prioritization strategies
Visiting Researcher	Dr Jenny Hodgson	Metapopulation dynamics of the silver-studded blue butterfly in stable and dynamic habitats
Visiting Researcher	Dr Aldina Franco	Priority areas for the conservation of British biodiversity

Available PhD research projects

The dynamics of species and genes through the ice ages (for 2012 - 13)

Co-supervisor: Calvin Dytham

One of the great challenges of research on biodiversity is to understand how the present-day patterns that are observed have originated, and the extent to which the history of the Earth’s climate has generated present-day patterns. This project will simulate how the distributions of species and the genes they carry have responded to past climate change, and test the predicted patterns against present-day data on the distributions of species, and on the distributions of genes within those species.  The project will interest students with an interest in biodiversity, and existing skills in programming and bioinformatics – or an interest in developing such skills.


Assessing the risks of climate change to biodiversity (for 2012 - 13)

This project will use a risk assessment framework to identify which species of European butterflies, birds and potentially plants and other taxa are at greatest risk of extinction from climate change. It may also consider global data for selected groups of animals.  The project will identify the attributes of species that are considered to be at risk, and identify potential conservation strategies; including identifying species that might be saved by translocating them from one region to another.  The project will primarily involve data analysis and statistical modelling.

Publications

Selected publications

Thomas C D et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148

Hickling R et al. (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology 12: 450-455

Hoegh-Guldberg O, Hughes L, McIntyre SL, Lindenmayer DB, Parmesan C, Possingham HP and Thomas CD (2008) Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. Science 321: 345-346

Kremen C, Cameron A, Moilanen A, Phillips S, Thomas CD et al (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools Science 320: 222-226

Chen I.-C., H.-J.Shiu, S.Benedick, J.D.Holloway, V.K.Chey, H.S.Barlow, J.K.Hill & C.D. Thomas (2009) Elevation increases in moth assemblages over 42 years on a tropical mountain Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 106: 1479-1483

Wilson, R.J., Z.G.Davies & C.D.Thomas (2009) Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly Proceedings of the Royal Society, B 276: 1421-1427

External activities

Editorial duties

• Editorial review board: Conservation Letters
• Editorial review board: Diversity & Distributions
• Editorial review board: Ecological Entomology
• Editorial review board: Insect Conservation & Diversity

Media coverage

• We actively engage with the press to disseminate research findings: at least 2000 press items worldwide have reported the findings of our research on climate change, extinction and declining species