Counting children with TB - the role of modelling

Abstract: In 2016 the WHO estimated 10.4 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) occurred during 2015, 1 million of them in children under 15. However, the first global estimate in 2012 was half this number; previous to this the estimate was not attempted. We review why understanding the global epidemiology of TB in children is particularly challenging and highlight recent progress with methodology and data. Modelling has played an important part in this, and has been applied to understanding patterns of incidence, drug-resistant TB, the burden of latent TB and most recently mortality.