Forecasting demand due to COVID19 in English hospital trusts

Abstract: Since writing the abstract the focus of our research has changed considerably, and we are now an about 30-member strong team working across various workstreams on hospitalizations and economics supporting the COVID19 response at the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial College London. Our goal is to advise policy makers on optimal public health interventions in the short-to mid-term from a health economics perspective.

In the spirit of open research on the coronavirus pandemic, we want to present a seminar that deviates from the usual academic format. The team will attend the zoom call with me and present research on the following topics:

• Capacity of intensive care provision under alternative supply and demand side intervention scenarios during pandemic surge
• Clinical pathways and severity of COVID19 patients in hospitals
• Supporting the development of hospital workforce planning tools
• Economic impact of suppression and mitigation strategies
• Forecasting demand for hospitalizations and critical care (to be determined)

Our research is multidisciplinary and integrates closely with the epidemiological modelling at J-IDEA. We will present research that is unpublished and in progress, and for some workstreams we will not be able to present findings. We are very much looking forward to your advice and insights on the practical research we are conducting during this unprecedented public health emergency.