Methods of extrapolating evidence for use in economic evaluation models

Abstract

Estimation of longer-term or lifetime costs and benefits necessitates extrapolation of evidence beyond the duration of observed data, and involves making choices about the appropriate model(s) and assumptions to use.  The MRC methodology programme recently funded a collaborative project (Universities of Sheffield, York, Leicester and the MRC Biostatistics Unit) to explore alternative methods of extrapolation for use in economic evaluation in order to provide recommendations to support the NICE appraisal process.

The workshop will provide an overview of the 4 broad approaches outlined in the proposal: (1) a literature review to develop a taxonomy of methodological approaches and a critical review of their appropriateness and use in different circumstances; (2) case studies to explore alternative methods of extrapolation; (3) research on presenting structural uncertainties to decision makers; (4) synthesis of findings to provide recommendations. The aim of the workshop will be to get feedback on the initial research plans and to help generate further ideas to inform the overall programme of research.