Answer Session 1 Para 3.2
Again an initial 1000 and storing 5000 gave
Node mean sd MC error 2.5% median 97.5% start sample
pi 0.3134 0.1072 0.001529 0.1283 0.306 0.536 1001 5000
How many samples have you stored?__5000__________________
What is the mean value of p for you’re the samples from the posterior? ___0.3134_________
Sketch the form of your posterior from the kernel density estimate
How does this compare with the prior?________More peaked, values close to 0.1 and 0.6 (especially) are less likely_
What is the 95% credible interval for p ?_______0.123 to 0.536________________________