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{\Large\textbf{Most Honourable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes}}
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\textit{Andrew I Dale, Springer-Verlag, Berlin,, etc.,
xxiii+698 pp.; 2003; \pounds84.50; ISBN 0387004998}
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Most beginners no doubt believe that Bayes' Theorem was proved by
Thomas Bayes. In fact his most famous paper considered the following
problem, ``\textit{Given} the number of times in which an unknown event
has happened and failed: \textit{Required} the chance that the
probability of its happening in a single trial lies somewhere between any
two degrees of probability that can be named.'' He assumes \textit{a
priori} that all values of the unknown probability $\theta$ are equally
likely and concludes (in modern notation) that, conditional on the
observation of $X=p$ successes in $n$ trials,
\[ \Pr(b<\theta