"More Money for Health": Projecting Fiscal Space for Health

Authors: Paulo Santos Monteiro and Priscilla Kandoole 

Abstract: A panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model with macro-finance and health blocks is used to study how structural shocks jointly affect the macroeconomy and health outcomes in the short run. The model is estimated jointly for Eswatini, Malawi, Mauritius, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The analysis explored the dynamic transmission of three shocks, namely, government expenditure, GDP growth, and health expenditure. The results reveal a tight link between public health spending and health outcomes, even in the short run. Evidence of rivalry for fiscal capacity across components of public spending is also shown.