Accessibility statement

Eliciting probability distributions from experts

Thursday 28 September 2017, 12.15PM to 1.15pm

Speaker(s): Professor Jeremy Oakley, Professor of Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield

Abstract: Eliciting a probability distribution is the process of extracting an expert's knowledge about an uncertain quantity of interest, and constructing a suitable probability distribution that represents his or her knowledge and uncertainty about that quantity. Elicitation may be necessary when we have little or no data about some quantity that is required in an analysis. The process can be difficult, as experts may have little experience in making probability judgements that are typically required, and making such judgements can be hard in any case. In this seminar I will give a general introduction to the topic, talk about SHELF: a framework for conducting elicitation, and present some recent work on eliciting beliefs about variability and heterogeneity.

Location: ARRC Auditorium A/RC/014

Who to contact

For more information on these seminars, contact:
Alfredo Palacios
alfredo.palacios@york.ac.uk
Shainur Premji
shainur.premji@york.ac.uk

If you are not a member of University of York staff and are interested in attending a seminar, please contact
alfredo.palacios@york.ac.uk 
or
shainur.premji@york.ac.uk 
so that we can ensure we have sufficient space

Economic evaluation seminar dates

  • TBA