A methodological framework for developing the structure of Public Health economic models

Abstract: A conceptual modelling framework is a methodology that guides modellers through the development of a model structure. Public Health interventions tend to operate within dynamically complex systems and require broader considerations than clinical interventions. Inappropriately simple models and lack of justification may lead to poor validity and credibility, resulting in suboptimal allocation of resources. I present the first conceptual modelling framework specifically for Public Health economic evaluation.

 

The framework was informed by: (a) two literature reviews of the key challenges in Public Health economic modelling and existing conceptual modelling frameworks; (b) qualitative research to understand the experiences of modellers when developing Public Health economic models and their views about using a conceptual modelling framework; and (c) piloting a draft version of the framework within a diabetes prevention project. The conceptual modelling framework draws upon several disciplines to provide a transparent approach for developing Public Health economic models, and in particular systematic consideration of the social determinants of health, dynamic complexity, the understanding of the problem, moving from an understanding of the problem to the model structure, and stakeholder involvement. It is offered for further testing within case studies.