Alcohol consumption modelling for alcohol policy appraisal

Abstract: Reducing the harm caused by alcohol consumption is a key goal of policymakers both in the UK and internationally. Consumption reduction in certain population sub-groups, such as women drinking the equivalent of four or more bottles of wine per week, or 18-to-24 year old men consuming four or more pints of beer in a single drinking occasion, is now a well-established policy aim in England. Population-level interventions, such as imposing a minimum price per unit of alcohol for the retail sale of alcohol, are increasingly favoured by policymakers and public health advocates as a means of meeting such aims. However the estimated effectiveness of these interventions at reducing alcohol consumption is often derived from model-based evidence synthesis, such as the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model, rather than statistical analysis of a pilot or trial. This talk will examine the rationale behind the structure and parameters of the Sheffield Model. It will consider the strengths and limitations of the existing approach and describe current research efforts aimed at facilitating an improved validation of model outputs. The talk will conclude by sketching a new complex systems
framework for improved understanding and prediction of alcohol consumption within populations.