Restricting choice of cigarettes reduces smoking

Abstract: 

This study investigates the long-term effects of restricting cigarette choice on smoking. We exploit an unanticipated discontinuation of certain cigarette products owing to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Analyzing nationally representative home scanner data covering 16,533 smokers in Japan from 2010 to 2014, we find that restricting cigarette choice leads smokers to choose lower tar and nicotine alternatives, resulting in a 32% decrease in monthly cigarette consumption. The effect persists over the years. Our results imply that a policy intervention restricting the variety of cigarette products help reduce the harm of smoking.

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