Decision Analytic Modelling for Economic Evaluation (York)

Foundations

Foundations Course

Overview

This is a two-day course providing an introduction to the principles and practice of decision modelling for economic evaluation in health.  

The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to develop skills and knowledge in decision analysis for purposes of cost effectiveness analysis.  It is designed for participants who are familiar with the basic principles of economic evaluation who wish to build, interpret and appraise decision models.  It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking economic evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, consultancy, academia or the health service.

Teaching methods

A mixture of presentations from members of the Faculty, together with computer-based exercises using MS Excel on PCs provided.  All exercises will be supported by Faculty and a group of tutors.

Objectives

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• consider the role of decision modelling in economic evaluation to guide decision making
• use the basic building blocks of decision analysis such as joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
• implement the principles of conceptual modelling as a way of planning a model
• understand the strengths and weaknesses of the decision tree model and build such a model in Excel
• understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Markov model and build such a model in Excel
• build a model for a generic diagnostic test and understand how to assess the value of diagnostic information
• think critically about the structure of decision models in particular situations and apply these appropriately
• implement key generic analytic steps in decision analysis such as evidence identification and basic synthesis, sensitivity analysis and reporting results

Prerequisites

Participants would be expected to have attended a general course in economic evaluation such as York expert workshops offered by the University of York. The course with be based in a computer laboratory with each participant being given access to a computer with Microsoft Excel installed. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.

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Outline programme

Please note that the exact programme is subject to change although the material covered will remain largely the same

Day one (10:00am start)

• Module 1: Framing, planning and conceptualising models
  • Setting up decision problems
  • Designing an analysis
  • Conceptualising a model
  • Exercise
• Module 2: Decision trees
  • Overview of decision trees
  • Structure and analysis
  • Exercise
• Evening social event: Course dinner

Day two 

• Module 3: Modelling diagnostics
  • Structuring diagnostic strategies
  • Value of diagnostic information
  • Exercise
• Module 4: Markov modelling
  • Cohort Markov models
  • Structure and analysis
  • Exercise
• Module 5: Further analytical steps
  • Sources of evidence
  • Synthesis of evidence
  • Uncertainty analysis
• Course ends (5:00pm)

The following article describes an introduction to Markov modelling: Briggs A, Sculpher M. Introducing Markov models for economic evaluation. PharmacoEconomics 1998; 13(4): 397-409. An Excel version of the model may be downloaded if you wish. 

Fees

VAT is not payable. Transferring between courses is not possible. Registration fees are payable in advance of the Course dates and are fully inclusive of:

• Tuition
• Lunch
• One Course Dinner event per Course
• Course materials 
• Do not include accommodation  

Advanced

Advanced Course

Overview

A three-day course focusing on Advanced Modelling Methods for Economic Evaluation.  

The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to learn about recent methodological developments in cost-effectiveness analysis. It is designed for participants who are familiar with basic decision modelling who wish to learn how to use more advanced modelling methods. It is particulary suitable for those who have attended our Introduction to Modelling Methods for Health Economic Evaluation.  It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking modelling for health economic evaluation.

Objectives

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• model and populate a Markov model with time-dependent probabilities based on the results of parametric survival modelling
• make a probabilistic model to reflect parameter uncertainty and to run Monte Carlo simulation
• present the results of a probabilistic model using net monetary benefits and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves
• assess the expected value of perfect information
• understand how to incorporate various forms of meta-analysis into probabilistic decision models

Prerequisites

This is an advanced course focusing specifically on decision modelling. Participants would be expected to have attended a general advanced course in economic evaluation such as York summer workshops offered by the University of York, and to be familiar with foundations level decision anaysis (see Foundations course). The course will be based in a computer laboratory with each participant being given access to a computer with Microsoft Excel installed. Each module will involve computer work on exercises which will be built up over the three days. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.

A copy of the handbook 'Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation' is included with the course materials.

The following article describes an introduction to Markov modelling: Briggs A, Sculpher M. Introducing Markov models for economic evaluation. PharmacoEconomics 1998; 13(4): 397-409. An Excel version of the model may be downloaded if you wish. 

Outline programme

Day one (10.00am start)

• Introduction
• Module 1: Developments in Markov modelling
  • Overview of Markov models
  • Advanced concepts in Markov models - time dependency and dealing with the Markov assumption
  • Building time dependency into Markov models using parametric survival modelling
  • Partitioned survival analysis for cost effectiveness modelling
  • Exercise
• Evening social event: Drinks reception

Day two 

• Module 2: Probabilistic modelling
  • 2nd order Monte Carlo
  • Dealing with distributions
  • Programming Excel
  • Using regression analysis to populate models
  • Exercise
• Module 3: Presenting the results of probabilistic modelling
  • Presenting results from probabilistic models (net benefits, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, sub-groups)
  • Exercise
• Evening social event: Course dinner

Day three 

• Module 4: Value of information analysis
  • Value of information methods
  • Development of EVPI
  • Introduction to EVSI
  • Exercise
• Module 5: Evidence synthesis in probabilistic models
  • Metrics used in meta-analysis
  • Fixed and random effects models
  • Indirect and mixed treatment comparisons
  • Exercise
• Course ends (4:00pm)

Fees

VAT is not payable. Transferring between courses is not possible. Registration fees are payable in advance of the Course dates and are fully inclusive of:

• Tuition
• Lunch
• One Course Dinner event per Course
• Course materials 
• Do not include accommodation

Faculty

Faculty

In addition to the presenters below, tutors from CHE will be involved in all exercises to ensure that there will be approximately one faculty member for every four participants.

Andrew Briggs

Andrew Briggs, DPhil, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, was appointed to the Lindsay Chair in Health Economics in June 2005. Andrew has an interest in all aspects of economic evaluation applied to health care, in particular the use of statistical methods for assessing cost and cost effectiveness, and the use of risk/prognostic modelling for making treatment decisions and guiding policy.  

Karl Claxton

Karl Claxton, DPhil, Professor of Economics in the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment in the Centre for Health Economics, and in the Department of Economics, University of York. His research interests include evaluation on health care technologies, decision analysis, Bayesian decision theory and value of information analysis.

Susan Griffin

Susan Griffin is a Senior Research Fellow based in the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment. She joined the Centre for Health Economics in 2002 and holds a BSc in Economics, an MSc in Health Economics and a PhD on ‘Dealing with uncertainty in the economic evaluation of health care technologies’. Susan has contributed to numerous technology appraisals for NICE in her role as a member of one of the independent academic groups contracted to conduct assessments and evidence reviews for NICE.  In addition, Susan has worked on economic evaluations in the fields of cardiovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, cancer and mental health.

Stephen Palmer

Stephen Palmer, MSc, is a Professor and Deputy Director of the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment at the Centre for Health Economics, University of York. He has worked in economic evaluation for over 15 years in areas including pharmaceuticals, cardiology, cancer, mental health, diagnostic and screening programmes and policy. He has extensive experience of health economic evaluation, regulatory and reimbursement processes. His principal areas of expertise relate to the methodology and application of decision-analytic modelling and Bayesian approaches to Health Technology Assessment. He has worked closely with policy makers and currently leads the programme of work at CHE for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) and he is also a member of the NICE Decision Support Unit.  He has advised policy makers internationally including in the US and Canada. He is currently a member of the NICE Technology Appraisal Committee and the NIHR Research for Patient Benefit Programme. 

Mark Sculpher

Mark Sculpher, PhD, Professor and Director of the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Centre for Health Economics, University of York. Mark has worked in the field of economic evaluation and health technology assessment for over 25 years. He has particular interest in decision analysis, pharmaceutical policy and uncertainty analysis.

Marta Soares

Marta Soares, Marta's research interests are related to the development and application of statistical, econometric and decision analysis methods in all components of health technology assessment and value of further research analysis. In 2014, Marta won the ISPOR Award for Excellence in Application of Pharmacoeconomics and Health Outcomes Research.

Registration

Registration

Before you register on these workshops please ensure you have secured the appropriate funding from your organisation, and (if applicable) that you allow yourself plenty of time to apply for any visas you may require to enter the UK, as you may experience some delay in getting these processed.

Please register for the via Credit/Debit card for instant payment and a guaranteed secured place (please note the University of York does not accept American Express cards) University of York online payment store 

If you or your organisation cannot pay by credit/debit card please email the Spring Course Coordinator on che-admod@york.ac.uk

• Please note that we will submit invoices by email invoices to an address of your choice but we will not sign up to portals due to the way the University is structured and due to limited resources we have in our office.
• We regret that we cannot reserve or hold workshop places in advance of booking or payment.
• Please note that the website will indicate when the course is full

Fees

VAT is not payable. Transferring between courses is not possible. Registration fees are payable in advance of the Course dates and are fully inclusive of:

• Tuition
• Lunch
• One Course Dinner event for each Course
• Course materials 
• Do not include accommodation 

Cancellations and alterations

For bookings of between 1 and 5 people from the same organisation a full refund of course registration fees (less a 10% administrative charge) will be made for cancellations received in writing at least one month prior to each course. Cancellations made less than one month prior to each course are not refundable.

For larger bookings of 6 or more people from the same organisation a full refund of course registration fees (less a 10% administrative charge) will be made for cancellations received in writing at least two months prior to each course. Cancellations made less than two months prior to each course are not refundable.

Substitutes can be made but please email the substitute delegate details as soon as these are known, to che-admod@york.ac.uk.

In the unlikely event that, due to unforeseen circumstances, the course has to be cancelled by the University of York, our liability is limited to refund of course fees. We recommend delegates have adequate insurance cover to claim any travel or personal expenses.

Accommodation

The course takes place on the University West Campus - more information is provided in the registration letter.

You are responsible for arranging your own accommodation.  Unfortunately, campus accommodation is not available over the Easter break.  Some rooms may become available - the University Conference Office can provide updated information.  There are many hotels and guest houses locally (Fulford and Heslington are the closest areas) and some of these hotels can be viewed on the following web-sites:

http://www.expedia.co.uk/Fulford-Hotels.d602274.Travel-Guide-Hotels

http://www.visityork.org/

FAQs

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 1: The course description states that a familiarity with Excel is essential, exactly what constitutes familiarity?

The course involves a number of exercises structured within the Microsoft Excel(TM) spreadsheet package. A number of specialist functions, such as vlookup(.) and distribution functions will be covered as part of the course and so familiarity with these specific functions is not essential. However, it is essential that participants are familiar with the basic concepts of manipulating spreadsheets: copy and pasting, using formulae and functions to link cells together, dragging cells to create a series etc. All of the exercises we will cover in the course are included in the book “Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation” and are available online

If you are concerned about your familiarity with Excel, then have a look at one of the early examples ahead of time. You will enjoy the course more, and get more out of the exercises, if you have a reasonable level of Excel proficiency such that you can concentrate on the concepts underlying the exercise rather than learning Excel as you go along.

FAQ 2: Are there any reading recommendations such as books and articles to make sure that my knowledge is sufficient for the Advanced course?

We will hand out the course book “Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation” by Andrew Briggs, Karl Claxton and Mark Sculpher. All of the exercises we will cover in the course are included in this book, but there is no need to attempt the exercises ahead of time. The following article describes an introduction to Markov modelling:

Briggs A, Sculpher M. Introducing Markov models for economic evaluation. PharmacoEconomics 1998; 13(4): 397-409.

An Excel version of the model can be downloaded from our website. Familiarising yourself with this paper and the commands necessary to build the model in Excel will bring you to the approximate level covered in the Foundations course and prepare you for the Advanced course.

FAQ 3: Although I do not have direct modelling experience I am familiar with many of the basic concepts of economic modelling and have seen some of the models that have been developed by outside agencies for our company.  I would be keen to participate in a course that challenges me, and I think that the course content of this course looks particularly interesting.  Do you think that I would benefit from the course?

Enthusiasm is probably the most important requirement. The key decision for you is whether to attend the Foundations course first or to go straight to the Advanced course. To help you decide, we suggest you review the article and model download listed under FAQ 2 above. If you find this challenging, consider starting with the Foundations course.

FAQ 4: Is the course the same as that held in Glasgow?

Yes, the faculty and the material is the same as the Glasgow course, we run it twice, once at each of our institutions. The core faculty is the same, but the tutors will come from our respective research teams.

FAQ 5: Is the course ECTS-credit eligible?

No, our courses are not credit eligible.

FAQ 6: Is the course fee including VAT?

No, the course fee is VAT-exempt.

FAQ 7: How can I pay for the course?

You can use the University of York online payment store for course fee payment credit/debit card.

Alternatively, if you require one, an invoice can be issued using this form Invoice registration.

FAQ 8: When is my payment of the course fee due?

The course fee is payable in advance, and payment is due 30 days from the date of the invoice or immediately if using the online payment. 

FAQ 9: What is included in the course fee?

The course fee includes full participation of the course, the course materials including the course book “Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation” (Advanced course only), lunch and coffee breaks on each course day, as well as a course dinner for each course. There is also a drinks reception on the Wednesday evening for those attending the Advanced course.

FAQ 11: How often do you run the course?

We run this course once a year in early spring. The course also runs once a year in September at the University of Glasgow.

Testimonials

Feedback from previous courses

• "Course was organised very well with good mixture of theory and practice"
• "All take home documents very useful and valuable to have"
• "You have set a high benchmark for all other existing courses/workshops"
• "Excellent course and staff very knowledgeable"
• "Very well organised and taught"
• "Tutors were nice and helpful during the practical parts"
• "Really well organised course; lectures and exercises were excellent. Would recommend to anyone wanting a whirlwind tour of Decision Analytic Modelling!"
• "One of the best courses I’ve been on, thanks"