HOUSING STUDIES ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE, SPRING 2010

 Housing in an Era of Change       

Programme

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PLENARY SESSION 1: AN ERA OF CHANGE: THE HOUSING ‘MODEL’ UNDER STRAIN

Professor Duncan Maclennan (St. Andrews University)
Belief in Change or Changing Beliefs?

National elections always heighten, even exaggerate the prospect of and need for change. In the UK the ex ante promise of ‘things can only get better’ is now being met with the oppositional ‘we can’t go on like this’. The endless, tiresome repetition of Barrack Obama’s once fresh mantras plead with us to embrace change, to believe in change. This paper argues that despite the recent great crash and elongated recovery there are worrying signs that little real change is planned. The UK will confront a serious reduction in public expenditure to restrain and then reduce levels of public indebtedness but it seems that there is little thought being given as how to change the UK housing system. The aim should be to use resources more effectively with a reduced net fiscal take (summed spending on and taxes from the housing sector)on the economy.

There is, as yet, little obvious attention to the financial structures and reward systems that facilitated the crash, in the banking and business sectors. As growth resumes it will be in the context of ever more competitive global markets with their attendant implications for labour and housing markets. Even more worrying, the mistakes of the mid-1990’s are already being repeated as government allows the joy of recovery to relax the imperative to shape a more effective, resilient housing system. Arguments are already focussing around the budget for the system rather than system redesign. And this is unsurprising as over the last quarter century, and often with some significant benefit, there have been broadly continuing shifts in UK housing policies that have had cross-party support and wide acceptance within the bureaucracy.

Yet the emergent system, let alone the resource levels it commands, fails to address the housing policy challenges of the times. There is the challenge of the unmet needs, unmet social housing improvement and unmet housing output targets that have persisted through the fiscal abundance of the long boom. There are the requirements for investment to still foster the recovery. And looming through the fog of uncertain growth are the ‘icebergs’ of population aging and greenhouse gas reductions with rising real energy prices.

To address these issues beliefs will have to change and real economics will have to underpin policy choices. The paper analyses in more detail three areas for major policy change. Political and bureaucratic beliefs about market rental sector policies need to change and a stable middle market sector that is not simply an extension of leveraged household speculation is required. The analytical beliefs off those who design social housing policies need to refocus not on creating diverse but fragmented provision systems but to create effective quasi markets. The policy belief that local diversity equates with competitive outcomes has to end. And in the ownership sector the political class have to rethink their mindless fuelling of consumer aspirations for home-ownership and the fostering of the belief that owners have somehow worked hard and earned to accumulate the wealth they have. More stable housing systems, and an economy truly based on effort rather than lazy speculation and essential approaches to financing housing and care for the elderly in the UK require a radical rebalancing of housing taxation. With effective pricing in all sectors and a more cohesive and resilient housing system we could potentially do more with less. Calling for neighbourhood volunteer forces may have some local merits but will not have the potency of beliefs and behaviours changed by efficient tax systems.

Dr Richard Ronald (University of Amsterdam)
Home ownership ideology beyond the economic crisis: Housing system restructuring in Europe and East Asia
Beyond the UK, there has been considerable convergence in recent decades across developed societies concerning the social and economic role of home ownership and housing policy. This was accompanied by considerable policy neoliberalization and intensified flows of capital into the private housing sector. In the emerging era of economic volatility however, approaches are becoming more differentiated, reflecting the local features of housing systems and relative reliance on the owner-occupied housing market as a driver of the economy and the basis of household welfare security. This paper considers a number of empirical cases across Europe and East Asia to illustrate the complexity of local conditions and the interaction of cultural, socioeconomic and political factors in the housing sphere.

PLENARY SESSION 2: LIFE CHANCES AND HOUSING ‘ON THE GROUND’

Professor Alex Marsh (University of Bristol)
Social status and the demand for housing
We conventionally think of housing demand as having a consumption and an investment component. This paper examines whether integrating recent developments in economic thinking on relative consumption and social status into our analysis offers the potential to enhance our understanding of the behaviour of housing consumers.

Dr Becky Tunstall (London School of Economics)
Past eras of housing change and the impact on life chances today and in the future

Britain has four birth cohort studies tracking a single generation through their lives. These have much to reveal about housing change from 1946 to today, and on the link between early housing circumstances and later life outcomes. Drawing on two completed studies and a third now underway, this paper will show how much the British housing system has changed in the past, how this has affected different generations of children and families, and what we can say about tenure and neighbourhood effects. It will also cover the situation of the current generation of children and families, and the problems of trying to apply results to policy.

PLENARY SESSION 3: NEW DIRECTIONS FOR HOUSING? POLICY AND PRACTICE IN A NEW ERA

Abigail Davies (Chartered Institute of Housing)
Rethinking housing
The economy and national politics will have a significant impact on how UK housing policy and practice will look in the next five years. Abigail Davies will provide some food for thought on possible futures for investment, tenure, mobility, housing management, and the broader contribution of housing to social wellbeing. What might happen, what would be ideal, how will the wider housing sector respond, and how can we influence the direction of travel?

Dr Tim Leunig (London School of Economics)
"A housing agenda that will make a difference" ?
Tim Leunig will argue that making supply more response to demand - both across different regions and over time - is the only way Britain can overcome the current problems of overcrowding and low levels of affordability.