Towards a complex systems modelling framework for public health policy appraisal

Abstract: Achieving societal benefits by changing the behaviour of individuals is a cornerstone for contemporary public health policy, in key areas such as obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption. However, predicting the behavior changes (e.g. change in drinking patterns) that might result from any policy intervention (e.g. minimum pricing) is challenging due to the complexity of the implementation environment. This talk will describe recent work aimed at developing a framework for the use of complex systems methods for public health policy appraisal. The framework combines analysis at the macro and micro level, including both exploratory data-mining methods and explanatory agent-based modelling. The framework is used in an effort to identify the causal and contingent explanations for changes to patterns of alcohol use in Britain over the last 30 years.