Accessibility statement

Risky business-funding decision under uncertainty: Managing structural uncertainty in decision making

Thursday 4 June 2015, 2.00PM to 3.15pm

Speaker(s): Dr Hossein Afzali, The University of Adelaide

Abstract: Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. Given the inherent uncertainty in model predictions, the assessment of uncertainty in model-based evaluations is an essential part of the decision-making process. Although the impact of uncertainty around the choice of model structure and making incorrect structural assumptions on model predictions is noted, relatively little attention has been paid to this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits advisory Committee (PBAC) and NICE. This can add further uncertainty to the decision-making process, with potential impact on the quality of funding decisions.

This seminar will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on structural uncertainty in model-based economic evaluations and to explore what structural uncertainty is, its significance and guidance on how it should be characterized and reported in submissions to national funding bodies. There will also be a brief overview of a different but overlapping issue, the development and use of disease-specific (reference) models within the decision making process.

Location: ARRC Auditorium A/RC/014

Who to contact

For more information on these seminars, contact:

Adrian Villasenor
Adrian Villasenor-Lopez
Dacheng Huo
Dacheng Huo

If you are not a member of University of York staff and are interested in attending the seminar, please contact Adrian Villasenor-Lopez or Dacheng Huo so that we can ensure we have sufficient space

CHE Seminar Programme

  • Thursday 12 January 2017
    Jon Sussex, Chief Economist, RAND Europe
  • Thursday 9 February 2017
    Richard Murray, Kings Fund